A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
